The number of travelers expected to arrive at major travel destinations in Spain such as Tenerife, Mallorca and Malaga show a three-digit growth as compared to the same period last year, as per our Airline Travel Forecast report powered by Demand.AI.

From all the data extrapolated from the ATF report, we are able to compare figures of actual travelers arriving at airports in the last 12 months, and then forecasted traveler numbers for a period of the next three months. Data in the report also includes actual values from 2019 and 2020, apart from 2021.
Here are key highlights for the forecasted demand for the three destinations:

  • With the lessening of severity in Covid and its subsequent restrictions, Tenerife enjoys greater popularity among the visitors, as the season is perfect for the lovely beaches within the Canary Islands, which normally bring in around 12 million tourists annually. People from the UK and Ireland are expected to flock in numbers to the tune of 1.2 million to enjoy the pleasant summer in Tenerife.
  • History and adventure seekers would be thrilled with the weather predictions in Mallorca for the upcoming months, making it ideal to explore the ancient monuments and other attractions that the largest island of the Balearic Islands has to offer. This is reflected in the expected large inflow of over 4 million travelers in the next 3 months.
  • It is not without reason that many people including the famous historical traveler Ibn Batuta describe Malaga as one of the largest and most beautiful towns of Andalusia. Located on the Costa De Sol (Coast of the Sun), it provides travelers with an exciting opportunity to soak in the culture of Spain at its raw, unfiltered best. As such, demand for the next 90 days is roughly double that of Tenerife.
  • Between these three popular destinations, the charm of Palma seems to win over travelers, as Mallorca enjoys the highest demand, slightly more than thrice that of Tenerife.

Here are some more details handpicked from the ATF forecast report:

Destination: Tenerife

Around 1.2 million people are expected to arrive in Tenerife in the next 90 days (as on 11th May 2022). This is about 50% more than the number of actual travelers in 2021, and more than double of what it was during the pandemic. However, recovery to pre-covid levels would possibly take more than 3 months, as the current standing as compared to pre-covid levels for the same period is 25% lesser.
Source markets expected to bring in the most number of travelers to Tenerife include the UK, Ireland and Iberia, with the UK contributing 4 times the influx as compared to the same period in 2021.
For a shorter time frame of 30 days, almost 425k people are expected to travel to Tenerife, which is a massive 930% jump from 2020, but still 18% lower compared to pre-covid levels. However, it is performing 136% better than the same period in 2021.
Interestingly, compared to the other days of the week, most people are expected to travel on Tuesday in May, followed by Wednesday in June and Saturday in July this year. This is in contrast to Saturday commanding the highest air travel inflow for May and July in 2021, and Tuesday for June 2021.

Destination: Mallorca

Around 4.06 million people are likely to be traveling to Mallorca in the next 3 months (as on 11th May 2022). This is double the number of travelers for the same period last year, signifying a very positive recovery from last year. In fact, it is 363% better than what it was during the pandemic in 2020. Considering pre-covid travel for the same period in 2019, we have witnessed a minor 12% decline, signifying that a recovery back to pre-covid levels is on the cards within the next few months.
Central Europe is bringing in most of the travelers to Mallorca, followed by Iberia. This is consistent across the next 30, 60 and 90 days. Compared to pre-pandemic numbers, travel from the UK and Ireland has taken the greatest hit, down by as much as 36%.
In the next 30 days, nearly 1.38 million people are expected to travel to Mallorca, a huge jump of 1178% from 2020, and roughly three times as many for this period from last year. This number is almost similar to pre-covid travel data, marginally lower by 2%.
Unlike the constant trend seen in 2021 where Saturdays had the highest bookings across the May to July period, forecasted cumulative travel in 2022 is spread across the weekday spectrum with Sundays in May, Wednesdays in June and Saturdays in July having the highest influx of travelers.

Destination: Malaga

For Malaga, as many as 2.36 million people are expected to arrive in the city in the next 90 days (as on 11th May 2022). While this is still 14% lower than pre-covid levels, it is a three-figure recovery for both years preceding 2022, standing at 131% as compared to 2021 and 355% as compared to 2020.
A lot of travelers from the UK and Ireland seem to prefer Malaga over other destinations in Spain, with over 767k people already booked and ready for travel, and another 548k are likely to book soon. While Mid-May to Mid-July seems to have a steady inflow of passengers, Mid-July to August is likely to be less busy, but still, over 101% compared to 2020, and 28% higher than the same period in 2021.
While Saturday used to be the busiest day of travel back in May 2021, the focus has now shifted to Sunday in May 2022. Similarly, while Tuesday was busier in June 2021, Thursday seems to be geared up for higher demand in June 2022.

Slow yet steady path to recovery

Overall, for all the 3 destinations, we see that the demand forecasts suggest a steady return to pre-Covid level travel demand, with the three cities Tenerife-Mallorca-Malaga experiencing 90-day volumes that are just 15-24% lower than that of 2019. This is solid proof that the ill effects of the pandemic are behind us, and the travel industry is steadily building up towards normalcy – A sign that’s sure to bring joy to DMOs, Hotels, Rental Companies and everyone else involved in the hospitality sector.
Note: All the data in this article was sourced from RateGain’s new Airline Traveller Forecast (ATF) module on the Demand.AI platform. The ATF model forecasts the number of airline passengers expected to travel to the selected destination in the near future (30/60/90 days) from a set of pre-defined source markets. This forecast comprises of a number of data points including proprietary and third-party data sources such as flight schedules, GDS bookings, search data, airfare intelligence, ticket availability, OTA booking forecasts, etc., while also combining it with important global news updates related to Covid and Travel.

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